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Originally Posted by FlaWildWind
This is great news. Maybe, just maybe, it will encourage people in the danger zone to go ahead and get out rather than waiting until the last minute.
It should also help the heavily populated areas get an earlier start on evacuations.
Even more encouraging is the fact that the forecasts are continuing to improve. That being said, the forecasts will never be perfect, so if it is out there I am going to be watching it.
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I don't think this will help at all with encouraging people to evacuate.
That has been the biggest issue from the beginning. When the average citizen population second guess the "experts" and "professionals" there will always be someone who thinks they know what to do and survive such an event. That would be the basic psychology of a disaster. No one wants to be told what to do, let alone when to do it. It is very difficult to convince the people of the dangers, especially when they have seen a few storms and felt there was no reason to evacuate and that they thought they could out smart the storms.
I know several on here including my self responded and worked in the disaster areas of Hurricane Katrina, Rita and Wilma, as well as the great Ernesto chase, and we surely feel the sorrow at the great loss of life, however Hurricane Katrina did do something right.
Katrina took many lives and did extensive and some irreversible damage, and while it may sound cold and heartless on my part to make such a comment, but I think this was a necessity.
One sure way to get attention and trust is to be absolute in the power. Katrina showed both of these traits, and was a storm that should have never been challenged by anyone with at least a brain cell.
The results of the loss of life and the damage has convinced people to pay attention more closely now. True not everyone has the same respect for storms, and many gaff at the idea of being wiped off the map, but lets examine the truth. Holly Beach La. was completely wiped off the map(Hurricane Rita)and is now just a sand beach once again with some rubble exposed as a reminder of what was there.
Many think of a hurricane or a tornado as a strictly wind event, and believe that a structure has a chance against these events. Sad truth is very few structures survive a direct hit. Those that do survive still sustain damage, but the design of the structure is likely the greatest reason it survived, look at domes and spherical shaped structures, these sustain the least amount of damage compared to other structures of same size and location. There is nothing for the wind to grab a hold of to tear apart is why. Not many homes are built for these events, and those that are, are usually a research project or the nemesis of someone with a bit of money to waste. True the structures are nice to look at and usually contribute something back to the region it is built by being more energy efficient and low on other resource needs.
Back to Hurricanes though and convincing someone to evacuate.
Hurricane Katrina and Rita are excellent recent events that have had a great impact on people, many to the point of fear. Fear is good in these events, fear determines when to fight or flight as well, fighting this is stupid though.
I don't think a weeks notice or any other notice will convince anyone to evacuate, but fear and experience might, though the cost of experience may carry an EXTREMELY high price.
While I don't normally promote fear as an education tool, but I think for this, it may be truly needed.
In regards to your next comment about early evacuations may improve the routs and times, I agree.
I also would add that this will reduce the impact and the resources needed for such an evacuation, like fuel and food. When there isn't a mad rush from an entire city, a fuel station has a better chance of being able to deliver the goods we all seek out, grocery stores will see less of a rush for beer and pop-tarts as well. ( Beer and Pop-Tarts are the number 1 selling items for a hurricane)
Traffic grid-lock will be sharply reduced to a much more manageable number that DOT and EMS can respond to as needed. ( I spent 7 hours traveling from Lafayette to Shreveport La. because of gridlock after a mass evacuation was initiated)
Your correct in your last statement about the improved forecasting abilities. I recall as a child having very little notice when to take shelter for some events, and this caused much trauma to my young brain, I was terrified of storms because I had been caught in a few.
I believe the credit for improved forecasting though is a shared venture by all weather enthusiasts! Every time a person reports an event through its various stages, we start to see a pattern from the data, which can create an improved algorithm.
Remember the days of having only black and white satellite views on the local news, and now look at what we have available now, amazing I think!
There will always be a need for human interaction in order to improve our abilities to respond in any manner besides being reactive after the fact!
The need to improve evacuation techniques are needed, the ability to convey the risks and dangers to the citizens is even more so needed! Having all the best plans in the world don't do a bit of good if you don't drill them and refresh them as needed, complacency will cost lives and structures!
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