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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 27 17:51:01 UTC 2015
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 27 17:51:01 UTC 2015.

SPC MD 46
MD 0046 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR RI...ERN MA...ERN NH...AND MUCH OF MAINE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...RI...ERN MA...ERN NH...AND MUCH OF MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 271524Z - 272030Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z ACROSS RI...ERN MA...ERN NH...AND MUCH OF MAINE. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT NWD WITH TIME. DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 15Z INDICATES A LOW SE OF MA WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 978 MB...MOVING NEWD WITH TIME. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE RI/MA COAST...ALSO MOVING NEWD. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE THE PRIMARY FEATURES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING N/S ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST FROM MAINE TO MA WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OFF THE MA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW MOVE NEWD THROUGH 20Z...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD AWAY FROM RI AND ERN MA...AND TOWARDS ERN NH AND MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN MAINE. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 20Z AS THE SFC LOW FILLS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS NWD AND AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..GLEASON/PETERS.. 01/27/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 41397175 42567179 44637103 46056883 46566782 45646757 45146706 44676710 44426739 44116834 43776965 42947057 41357043 41397175 Read more

SPC Jan 27, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST... PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS CA/SRN NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS NE ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN...WHILE DEEP NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM GRADUALLY PIVOTS NE AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE CROSSING HUDSON BAY. COLD AND/OR DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS. A CORRIDOR OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE LWR CO VLY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH. BUOYANCY AND LIFT IN THIS REGION WILL...HOWEVER...BE TOO LIMITED FOR DIURNAL STORMS. FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN/NRN NV...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID-LVL COOL POCKET /AOB MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD 700 MB MOISTURE BAND SPREADING NEWD FROM THE LWR CO VLY. COMBINATION OF LIFT WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX /NOW OVER S CNTRL NV/ AND MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVE. ..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 01/27/2015 Read more

SPC Jan 27, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE WYOMING/COLORADO ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BEING FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC STREAM AHEAD OF IT...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION BASED WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OR BANDS OF SHOWERS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IN GENERAL...STILL DO NOT INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS AND LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION. ..KERR.. 01/27/2015 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 VALID 271700Z - 281200Z ...WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S /RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS/...MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 MPH. NO CHANGE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..MOSIER.. 01/27/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FARTHER WEST...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC COAST AND TRANSIT EWD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG COASTAL LOW TRANSITING NEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S /AROUND 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE AS ADIABATIC DRYING OF THE LOWER-ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT AND THE PREVIOUS DELINEATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.. OVER WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO...SUSTAINED NWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S /20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH RESULTANT MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH NO CHANGE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GUSTY SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER S AND E /FROM CNTRL OK NEWD INTO E-CNTRL KS/ BUT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 25 PERCENT. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE GENERAL THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLATED TO DELINEATE A THREAT AREA WITH THIS FORECAST. ..MOSIER.. 01/27/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL TRANSIT EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY. ...WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO... ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WX IS FORECAST AS BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY...THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. DIURNAL MIXING WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE NWLY FLOW TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...ADIABATIC DRYING FROM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING OF FINER FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON D2/WED AND A DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

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