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Convective Outlooks
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Today's Convective Outlook
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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 28 08:45:02 UTC 2014
No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 28 08:45:02 UTC 2014.

SPC MD 1496
MD 1496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AREAS OF SERN CT/SRN RI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AREAS OF SERN CT/SRN RI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 280824Z - 281030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS /MAINLY LESS THAN 50 KT/ WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING AS THE NRN EXTENT OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST OF SERN CT AND RI. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN OVERNIGHT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TSTMS HAD MOVED OFF THE NJ COAST...AND WAS TRACKING ENEWD AT 30-35 KT ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS /60 E ACY/. SURFACE DEW POINTS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER 70S ARE HELPING TO OFFSET SOMEWHAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WSR-88D VAD AT OKX SHOWED VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 0.25-0.5 KM ARL...AND BACKING WINDS BETWEEN 0.5 KM TO AROUND 1 KM ARL. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/28/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 40777310 40967298 41237273 41417154 41447121 41077084 40507110 40277225 40327299 40777310 Read more

SPC Jul 28, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO OK. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NY WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ...SRN PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS WRN KS INTO OK...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING NWD OUT OF TX. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK BUT STRONG HEATING S OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. ..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014 Read more

SPC Jul 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. ...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... A RIBBON OF CYCLONIC 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS FIXED OVER THE ERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS REACHING THE OUTER BANKS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT NEAR S-CNTRL MS/AL AROUND PEAK HEATING. MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAKENED CINH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ISOLD-SCTD STORMS IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN OWING TO DIURNAL STABILIZATION EFFECTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD IN TANDEM WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY DELAY/INHIBIT STRONG SURFACE HEATING BUT A MARITIME AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /400-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/. GIVEN THAT THE PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY INTO HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY. A LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS POSING AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PERHAPS A TORNADO...AND LARGE HAIL. ..SMITH.. 07/28/2014 Read more

SPC Jul 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CANADA WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO AN OLD FRONT FROM NRN FL WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. SELY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WY INTO CO AND NM DURING THE DAY WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT. COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORM FROM WI INTO MI AND NRN IL...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWWD ACROSS ERN CO WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. HEATING AND 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL AID IN STORM LONGEVITY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING WITH A NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MARGINAL WIND AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ...WI...NRN IL...MI... DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONG HEATING AND LACK OF CIN WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONGESTUS WITH A FEW NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS AND LAKE BREEZES LOCALLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY EVEN FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH MANY OF THE CELLS. ...FL... HEATING ALONG WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE DAY S OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN FL. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE STORM STRENGTH AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014 Read more

SPC Jul 28, 2014 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BENIGN IN TERMS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE D4-D8 PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE ERN TROUGH MAY RETROGRADE A BIT WITH TIME...ALLOWING MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN TO BACK WWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... NO LARGE SCALE FIRE WEATHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WITH WEAK SWLY UPPER FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM S-CNTRL AND SERN OREGON INTO NWRN NV. ALTHOUGH A FEW DRY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST STORMS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARDS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES NWD. ..BOTHWELL.. 07/28/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST...NO LARGE SCALE FIRE WEATHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE IN THE NW WILL INCREASE WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1 INCH. MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS. ..BOTHWELL.. 07/28/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

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