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Convective Outlooks
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Today's Convective Outlook
Today's Convective Outlook
Tomorrow's Convective Outlook
Tomorrow's Convective Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Oct 31, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. THE GRT LKS-OH VLY TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THIS PERIOD AS STRONG VORT MAX NOW OVER WI ACCELERATES SSE INTO N GA...WHILE LEAD IMPULSES NOW IN AR...NRN AL...AND ERN NC ARE ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING...LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS AT LWR LVLS AS SPRAWLING...POLAR ANTICYCLONE BUILDS S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR SURGE...S TX FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE LATER THIS MORNING...ENDING THUNDER THREAT IN DEEP S TX. OTHERWISE...STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING...DEEPLY PARALLEL OVER-WATER TRAJECTORIES MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF CONVECTION TO SUPPORT SCTD THUNDER OVER PARTS OF NE IL...NRN IND...AND SW MI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND SNOW. ISOLD TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WILL APPRECIABLY INCREASE IN DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE OF DEEPENING TROUGH. SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT BUOYANCY/STORM COVERAGE. FARTHER W...E PACIFIC TROUGH ALSO SHOULD AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW DROPPING S ALONG 135W EVOLVES INTO A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA EARLY SAT. MID-LVL COOLING AND ASCENT WITH THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVER CA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. E OF THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION SWD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A BELT OF MID/UPR-LVL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SHEARING NNE AHEAD OF MAIN UPR TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 10/31/2014 Read more

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