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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 30 19:49:01 UTC 2015
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 30 19:49:01 UTC 2015.

SPC MD 159
MD 0159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 301811Z - 302045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY 7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED. ..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796 31368740 30808309 Read more

SPC Mar 30, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL...SW GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. ...ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..COHEN.. 03/30/2015 Read more

SPC Mar 30, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...SERN U.S... EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN U.S. REMAIN. WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME SHORTLY. OTHER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN GA AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/30/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/ ...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. ...ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. Read more

SPC Mar 30, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM WEST TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 120W...DRIFTING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT EWD TUESDAY WITH NRN PORTIONS OF DEAMPLIFYING LOW EXPECTED NEAR THE BIG BEND OF WEST TX BY 01/00Z. WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...MODEST SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SRN OK. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/SIGNIFICANT...STRONG HEATING ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD EASILY REMOVE INHIBITION SUCH THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS EXTREME SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90F IF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY THIN. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG. ANALOGS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG/NEAR WARM FRONT INTO NONDESCRIPT LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 15KT. ...SERN U.S... MODESTLY STRONG WNWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL EXTEND ACROSS AR INTO SRN GA/NRN FL ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...OR AT LEAST SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING...WILL SPREAD FROM NRN MS INTO AL AS HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED A BIT. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR WIND/HAIL BUT SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. ..DARROW.. 03/30/2015 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 VALID 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...AND WRN/CNTRL IA... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. THEREFORE...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...AND WRN/CNTRL IA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER N-CNTRL ND ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND CONTINUING SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED FROM E-CNTRL NM NEWD INTO MUCH OF KS. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SERN NEB. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND THE DAKOTAS OWING TO AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING IN BOTH OF THESE WIND REGIMES WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES TO FALL TO 15-25 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN THREE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS. AN EXPECTED COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED WWD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND A LARGER PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ERN NM. THIS REGION WILL GENERALLY HAVE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE NE...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS OF MAINLY 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF SERN WY TO THE E OF THE LARAMIE MTNS AS ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY PROMOTE A REDUCTION IN RH VALUES TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ..GLEASON.. 03/30/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0323 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/ ...SYNOPSIS... 06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST STATES...MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z/TUE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST...MOVING SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGING -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NRN CA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY... ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN IA. THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH...RESULTING IN WEAK WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT TEMPERED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SWLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES/LOWEST RH VALUES -- AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE -- AND THE STRONGEST WINDS -- NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS IA -- WITHIN THIS REGION. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY BUT THE DISSOCIATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A THREAT AREA WITH THIS FORECAST. IN CONTRAST TO AREAS FARTHER S...SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED E OF THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NWLY WINDS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND AT LEAST MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS AMIDST WARM TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LARGER AREA OF POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONDITIONS IN WRN SD/NEB...N-CNTRL WY...AND FAR SWRN ND. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST WINDS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE ELEVATED AREA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES/BIGHORN MTNS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF S-CNTRL MT/N-CNTRL WY OWING MAINLY TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND A CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION IN A FUTURE UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH INCREASES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. ..GLEASON.. 03/30/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/ ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE WRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EWD FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH PA AND NJ WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S. RESULTANT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 15 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 MPH. THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ACT TO MODERATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH ONLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...GREAT BASIN... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW INCREASES AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NV...E-CNTRL NV/W-CNTRL UT...AND NW AZ. HOWEVER...FUELS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE LARGELY UNRECEPTIVE...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

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