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Convective Outlooks
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Today's Convective Outlook
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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 17 22:30:01 UTC 2014
No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 17 22:30:01 UTC 2014.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Apr 17 22:30:01 UTC 2014
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 17 22:30:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Apr 17, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. ...DISCUSSION... ASIDE FROM TRIMMING THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES TO REFLECT CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS...THE OVERALL FORECAST/REASONING REMAINS VALID. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO STILL COULD PRODUCE LOCAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/S FL...MAINLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHTNING MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MORE WIDESPREAD CLUSTER OF STORMS CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF NRN CA/SERN OREGON/SWRN ID/NWRN NV AS AN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. ..GOSS.. 04/17/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/ ...SOUTH FLORIDA... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONGESTUS SWELLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA COMMENSURATE WITH DIURNALLY BOLSTERED PBL CIRCULATIONS. THE GREATEST AGITATION TO THE CU FIELD IS NOTED OVER THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MFL RAOB DEPICTING AN H5 TEMPERATURE AROUND -12C. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF MUCH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE AN INCREASING INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OWING TO VEERING OF POST-FRONTAL FLOW. FARTHER N...SUCH AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS BEEN LESS PROMINENT YIELDING A DECLINE OF BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS FL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TAMPA-MELBOURNE LINE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS STATIC STABILITY DIURNALLY LOWERS AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS INTENSIFY. WITH MIAMI VWP SAMPLING MODEST 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR -- I.E. AROUND 20-25 KT -- MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR W OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AS MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED INVOF THE W COAST BY BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL ELYS AND CONVECTION REGENERATES TOWARD 7.0-7.5-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY BE RATHER DISORGANIZED -- REDUCING THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE AND PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION. ...ELSEWHERE... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...WITH LEADING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION FOCUSING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITHIN A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PRECEDING THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN...AS DCVA PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTERCEPTS STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM. Read more

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