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Convective Outlooks
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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 23 13:53:01 UTC 2014
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 23 13:53:01 UTC 2014.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Apr 23 13:53:02 UTC 2014
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 23 13:53:02 UTC 2014.

SPC Apr 23, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS CONUS THIS PERIOD...MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURE ALOFT FOR SVR RISK BEING SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM BC TO NRN ROCKIES...UT AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. SERIES OF NRN-STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRAVERSE THAT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LOCATED OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS...LEADING TO ITS NET EWD MOVEMENT TO SK...WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...BASAL VORTICITY LOBE NOW OVER SRN SIERRAS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ESEWD AND INTENSIFY TODAY...EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO TO AZ/NM BORDER BY 00Z. BY 12Z THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH SWRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...WITH ASSOCIATED DCVA PLUME SPREADING OVER CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL/WRN K AND NW TX. AT SFC...COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN WY WILL MOVE EWD AND SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WHILE SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG ITS INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH OVER ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS. BY 00Z...FRONT SHOULD ARC FROM NWRN ND ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND NWRN KS. INITIALLY DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER-DEFINED BY 00Z FROM NRN COAHUILA NNEWD OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE THEN NWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL KS. COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE DRYLINE FROM N-S TONIGHT WHILE SFC CYCLONE MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD TO IA. BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM IA LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN KS...SWRN KS AND SERN CORNER OF NM. ...SLGT RISK AREA...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG COLD FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BEFORE AGGREGATING INTO QUASI-LINEAR/FRONTALLY FORCED MODE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH-BASED AND MAY BE PRONE TO EARLY-STAGE OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE. STILL...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD OFFER RISK FOR SVR GUSTS AND HAIL INTO EVENING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA...BEFORE MOVING EWD AND DIMINISHING. AIR MASS N OF ABOUT I-70 IS LIKELY TO STABILIZE DIABATICALLY FASTER THAN THAT INFLUENCE CAN BE OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION. FARTHER S...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN FIRST 2-3 HOURS FOR DRYLINE-INITIATED CELLS FROM WRN KS TO NW TX...WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROBABLE. CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOR SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL APPEARS LARGEST IN ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND NW TX. SOME INITIALLY DRYLINE-FIRED CONVECTION MAY AGGREGATE INTO CLUSTERS THIS EVENING AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OK OR N TX WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHERE ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LAST INTO EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ...CONCURRENT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING AND RESULTANT ADVECTION-RELATED BOOST IN INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE THAT LOWERS LCL. TIME WINDOW NEAR SUNSET AND INTO TWILIGHT THEREFORE MAY POSE SOME TORNADO RISK...WHERE TSTM MODES STILL ARE SUITABLE...AND BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING PROHIBITIVELY STRENGTHENS SBCINH. SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR ON BOTH SIDE OF DRYLINE...AIDING IN AFTN DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE PERSISTENT/ANTECEDENT HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...CORRIDOR OF RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY AFTN VERTICAL MIXING SUCH THAT SFC DEW POINTS MAY NOT RISE MUCH ABOVE CURRENT VALUES OVER MUCH OF NW TX...OK AND KS. HOWEVER...AROUND 00Z AND INTO EVENING...60S F DEW POINTS MAY REACH RED RIVER REGION WITH 50S INTO KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY REACH 40-50 KT ACROSS PRE-DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z. ...W-CENTRAL/SW TX... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS CORRIDOR...INITIATED BOTH INVOF DRYLINE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA. LATTER CONVECTION MAY REACH ADJOINING PORTIONS TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN CONCERNS...THOUGH POTENTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION APPEAR MORE LIMITED THAN FARTHER N. GREATEST POTENTIAL LONGEVITY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION MOVING OFF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...GIVEN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THIS AREA. ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/23/2014 Read more

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