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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC Tornado Watch 83
WW 83 TORNADO AR LA TX 192240Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 83 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 540 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA EAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME TENDENCY TO MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES/SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS. THESE MAY PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 79...WW 80...WW 81...WW 82... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. ...CORFIDI Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 82
WW 82 TORNADO NC SC CW 192100Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 500 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SC WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSING A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 79...WW 80...WW 81... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81
WW 81 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX CW 191930Z - 200100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WESTERN LOUISIANA EAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 79...WW 80... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. ...HART Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
WW 80 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 191840Z - 200100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER CENTRAL OK BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES EAST OF RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030. ...HART Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 79
WW 79 TORNADO FL GA NC SC CW 191705Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 79 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA EASTERN GEORGIA SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER GA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED STORMS IN THIS ZONE WILL POSE A RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 83 Status Reports
WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MLC TO 25 WSW FYV TO 25 ESE UMN TO 35 SE SZL TO 15 NNW SZL. ..MOSIER..03/24/15 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131-143- 149-250040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC019-027-029-043-051-053-059-067-089-105-125-131-135-141-151- 153-159-161-169-195-213-215-225-229-250040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER DALLAS DOUGLAS HOWARD LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 82 Status Reports
WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/19/15 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC007-037-051-057-085-093-105-123-125-151-153-155-165-167- 192340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON CHATHAM CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON HARNETT HOKE LEE MONTGOMERY MOORE RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON SCOTLAND STANLY SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-192340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION MARLBORO WILLIAMSBURG AMZ254-256-192340- CW Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81 Status Reports
WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/19/15 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133- 139-192340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073- 079-081-085-111-115-119-127-192340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80 Status Reports
WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MLC TO 30 E CQB TO 30 E BVO. ..SPC..04/19/15 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-071-083-087-089- 097-101-105-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-141-143-149-192340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-023-035-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-111-115-121-127- 131-135-143-145-192340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 79 Status Reports
WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE OGB TO 30 SE CLT. ..GRAMS..04/19/15 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 79 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC127-192340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GLYNN NCC179-192340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION SCC015-019-025-027-035-055-061-085-192340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY CHARLESTON CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON DORCHESTER KERSHAW LEE SUMTER Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 78 Status Reports
WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AAF TO 50 NE MCN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 78 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 19/19Z. ..KERR..04/19/15 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-065-073-077-129-191900- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC009-011-013-017-019-021-023-027-035-057-059-063-067-071-075- 079-081-085-087-089-091-093-095-113-117-121-125-131-133-135-139- 141-151-153-155-157-159-163-167-169-171-175-177-193-195-197-205- 207-211-217-219-225-227-231-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265- 269-275-277-287-289-293-297-301-303-307-315-317-319-321- 191900- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BANKS BARROW BEN HILL BERRIEN BIBB BLECKLEY BROOKS BUTTS CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAYTON Read more

SPC MD 383
MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN AL...NWRN GA...SERN TN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...SERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 192225Z - 200000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL TRACK ACROSS MIDDLE TN/NERN AL INTO SERN TN/NWRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN/NRN AL TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH LONG-LIVED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE NOTED FROM WHITE COUNTY TN...SWD INTO TALLADEGA COUNTY AL. WEAK MCV APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER...JUST WEST OF CHA. BOW-TYPE SHAPE THAT IS DEVELOPING WITH THIS EVOLVING FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED. ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 33578635 35728557 35688404 34628394 33348487 33578635 Read more

SPC MD 382
MD 0382 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81... FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX...WRN/CNTRL/NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...FAR WRN MS...FAR WRN TN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX...WRN/CNTRL/NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...FAR WRN MS...FAR WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81... VALID 192145Z - 192345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. A NEW WW MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM WRN AR TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE AIR MASS E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN MANY AREAS BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...LOCALLY GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF E TX. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED AS STORMS SPREAD EWD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD-LAYER MEAN FLOW POSSESSING A NOTABLE BOUNDARY-ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT IN THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...A DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE MAY BE DOMINANT INTO THE EARLY EVENING /AS IS BEING OBSERVED PRESENTLY PER RADAR LOOPS/ BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH/CELL INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CLOUD STREETS IN THIS REGION PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODESTLY ENHANCED...AND THE SHV VWP SAMPLES A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS SUCH...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WARRANTING LOCALIZED TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE -- EFFECTIVELY UPGRADING PORTIONS OF WW 81. OTHERWISE...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SPREADS EWD WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE. SVR HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FARTHER S...LOCALIZED SPATIAL EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81 MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AS CU CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OFFER CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH WEAKER DEEPER ASCENT AND MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE RENDER LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION W/SW OF WW 81. ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29749839 30699648 33449435 34179372 34199223 36049152 35869017 34809008 31569182 30419287 29839388 29429764 29749839 Read more

SPC Apr 19, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...AND SWD INTO NRN LA AND PARTS OF E TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/ERN OK/E TX EWD TO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/GA/N FL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN AREAS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAMAGING GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ...DISCUSSION... ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE ADJUSTMENTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS AND REASONING ISSUED EARLIER REMAIN VALID THIS UPDATE. SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS GA/SC/N FL ATTM...WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY FARTHER W ACROSS SERN KS/OK/E TX ON WRN FRINGES OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK -- TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 04/19/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR/TX/LA. ...OK INTO AR/TN/KY... A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER KS IS OPENING UP AND BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP DESTABILIZE PARTS OF OK/TX/AR AND LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM BENEATH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE CAPE...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE STORMS TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN AR THIS EVENING...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CONGEALED INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE BY THEN. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SEVERE WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT AS IT SPREADS INTO WEST TN/KY. ...EAST TX INTO LA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER EAST TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INTENSE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...TRACKING INTO LA AND WESTERN MS BEFORE WEAKENING. ...AL/WESTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON... SEVERAL 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF AL AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN GA THIS EVENING. THIS AREA WAS AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD MORNING CONVECTION...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AREA IN THE EVENT THAT RAPID HEATING CAN OCCUR...BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ...GA/SC... A BROAD CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SEVERAL STORMS IN THIS ZONE HAVE SHOWN ROTATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE BEING REPORTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SC. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...WRN ND...MUCH OF SD...NERN NEB...FAR NWRN IA... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH...WITH GUST UP TO 35 MPH...ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE MARGINAL TEMPS /HIGHS IN THE 50S/...RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT WITH A RESULTANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR AREAS NE OF ELEVATED AREA /S-CNTRL AND SE ND....FAR NE SD...AND SWRN MN/ WHILE WEAKER WINDS AND MORE MOIST FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE THREAT SW OF THE ELEVATED AREA /MUCH OF NEB AND WRN IA/. ..MOSIER.. 04/19/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0334 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON D2/MON...WITH A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER WRN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REX-BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW AND TROUGHING NEAR SRN CA. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST...DEEP NW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH THIS STRONG FLOW TO YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A DRY AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.2-0.3 IN/ WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING TO PROMOTE MIN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT. A NARROW WINDOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS MAY EXIST OVER SERN SD/FAR NERN NE...WHERE RECENT PCPN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL TEMPS IN THE 50S...AND SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PCPN PRIOR TO THE PERIOD...PRECLUDE A DELINEATION WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS AND CONFIDENCE IN WARMER TEMPS INCREASES...AN ELEVATED DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

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