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Convective Outlooks
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Today's Convective Outlook
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» From the Storm Prediction Center
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 25 03:02:01 UTC 2014
No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 25 03:02:01 UTC 2014.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jul 25 03:02:01 UTC 2014
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 25 03:02:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Jul 25, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... THE RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY LINGERING STRONGER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALREADY APPEARS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW SEEMING LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST WITHIN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS GENERALLY LAG TO THE WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS IS STRONG BENEATH 30-40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. GIVEN SIZABLE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000+ J/KG WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...SUBSTANTIVE CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER UNTIL WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. ...MINNESOTA/IOWA... AS THE 30-40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR COULD SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION... WEAKENING OF LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH ANY RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. ..KERR.. 07/25/2014 Read more

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